olitical triumph to fuel his claims to a Nobel Peace Prize. But an equitable end to the conflict may defy a quick fix since it poses existential issues for Ukraine and European security.
This tension was exacerbated by the president’s decision to exclude officials from Kyiv and European powers from US-Russia talks taking place in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday.
The fate of his push to end the war will ultimately rest on whether his swift pace can accommodate critical details of a peace that allows Ukraine to survive, secures the borders and security of Europe and avoids rewarding Russia’s illegal invasion.
Trump has shown little obvious concern for any of these three goals – one reason why his strategy is a gamble.
But each party in the process has grave concerns and significant leverage, which explains why ending the war will be far harder than his failed campaign trail promises to forge peace in 24 hours.
Trump wants a deal – perhaps any deal
The war often seems a distraction from what Trump really wants – the chance to sit down with Putin, one of the global strongmen he admires.
Still, there’s a chance that Trump’s urgency and power, plus that channel with the Russian leader, could change the dynamics of this World War I-style war of attrition.
Trump is, for instance, only voicing a reality that many US and European officials have shared privately for months: that Ukraine can no longer win the war and eject Russia from all the territory it has seized.
President Donald Trump speaks with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during family photo session with other leaders and attendees at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 28, 2019.
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Trump’s subordinates endlessly laud him as the world’s greatest dealmaker. But his efforts so far seem naive.
He’s conceded some of Russia’s top goals, often seems to empathize with the goals of the invasion and has turned on America’s European friends who’ve shared the cost of supporting Ukraine’s war effort. Those are the same allies who Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth says must police any peace alone.
In his most extraordinary move, Trump tried to claim half of Ukraine’s rare earth metals wealth — in a play that exploited an invaded nation’s desperate vulnerability. President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the “deal.”
Trump appears to have little understanding of the historical hazards either in Ukraine or indeed in the Middle East, given his plan to move the Palestinians from Gaza so he can build beach resorts.
Trump’s view of every geopolitical crisis as a real estate deal waiting to be clinched suggests he might embrace an agreement that lets Putin keep all of the land he’s stolen just to stop the killing.
And there’s a big risk he’s being played by Putin. The Russian leader warmed the atmosphere ahead of the Saudi talks by handing Trump victories with the release of several US prisoners, including on Monday with Kalob Byers, 28, kra28.cc who was arrested on drug smuggling charges last week.
And Trump thinks he came away from his call with the Russian leader last week with a pledge to talk sweeping nuclear arms cuts. This is one reason why the Saudi talks involving Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security adviser Mike Waltz are so important: They must test Russia’s seriousness and protect Trump from overzealous interpretations of Russian concessions.
The stakes are huge. A hurried peace deal that strengthens Russia and weakens European security by validating Putin’s expansionism would likely sow the seeds for an even worse future war.
At the end of the Cold War, President George H.W. Bush managed the fall of the Soviet Union and its satellite states in Eastern Europe — sometimes overruling regional leaders in the wider interests of the West and their own security. There’s no sign that Trump feels any such affinity for Europe or its future.
